von Ulrich Lichtenthaler
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3. März 2025
A new business landscape calls for a whole new way of strategizing: Companies need to prepare for the PUMO world – Polarized, Unthinkable, Metamorphic, and Overheated. The February 2025 showdown between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House led to considerable shock and surprise across the globe, yet it is just another example of how fundamentally the world has changed in recent years. In this context, existing frameworks for understanding the broader business landscape are insufficient, for example VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous) and BANI (Brittle, Anxious, Nonlinear, Incomprehensible). Firms constantly operate in contexts where these characteristics are nearly default settings. Consequently, these frameworks may still be helpful, but their marginal benefit is limited. They are not enough to successfully maneuver the global business landscape, where new challenges demand a novel approach with fresh business logic. Enter the PUMO framework (Polarized, Unthinkable, Metamorphic, Overheated), which enables a more relevant and actionable approach to succeeding in a shifting and turbulent environment. Polarized: Coping with major divides For several years, there has been a growing polarization about political, economic, social, and environmental topics. Rather than capturing multiple facets across a continuum, there is a tendency towards extremes with limited relevance of the middle ground. Stakeholders may expect firms to take clear positions, and just having a neutral spot regarding some topics becomes increasingly difficult. Multinational companies have the additional challenge of coping with contrasting demands based on different regional contexts worldwide. Beyond political, ESG , and AI topics, there may be specific business decisions that require a clear yes/no. Will a company decide in favor of supporting one major digital platform or another – and what implications will this have for its business in different regions across the globe? Such decisions may boost business and loyalty in some areas while leading to major challenges and problems in others. Thus, leaders need to understand the variety of divides and navigate them with strategic clarity. Unthinkable: Anticipating the unimaginable If companies try to prepare for the unexpected based on contingency plans, this may be a start, but it certainly is not enough. In recent years, we have witnessed a growing number of events, crises, and disruptions that traditionally would have been considered beyond the realm of possibility. Situations that are hard to predict or completely unpredictable may send shockwaves through the system of markets, industries, and business ecosystems. As difficult as it may be, companies need to prepare by trying to anticipate the unimaginable. Supposedly unthinkable news cannot be regarded as extremely rare exceptions, but they are an integral part of doing business. Firms need to react by strengthening their flexibility, nurturing their resilience, and broadening their strategic options. In addition, leaders need to be able and willing to fundamentally pivot and rethink their strategies at short notice while tactically adapting to specific situations in real time, and they may strategically prepare for this.